Reinforcing the Paris Agreement: Ambitious scenarios for the decarbonisation of the Central Asian and Caspian region

For its abundant fossil resources, the Central Asia and Caspian region plays a strategic role in energy security of major markets, such as Europe China. However, this dependence on export, added to firm reliance fuels for internal consumption, represents significant challenge decarbonisation region. In paper, we perform an scenario analysis four countries (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan Turkmenistan), aiming investigate how ambitious their regional targets 2050 are view Paris Agreement. We also develop net-zero emission pathway reinforce climate ambition long term. As novelty literature, is co-designed with stakeholders through engagement process that have carried out from December 2020 May 2021. The performed TIMES-CAC system model. Results show current policies insufficient achieving term (2050 beyond). lack long-term strategy decrease export increases influence importing countries’ policies. Even decarbonised scenario, China remains significant, while European Union decreases. To limit pressure other transition, should start implementing rigorous planning today fill “ambition gap” achieve carbon neutrality 40-year horizon.